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NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA's Guidance and Outlook

Q1 2025 Earnings Call (May 22, 2024)

Total Revenue:

  • Expected: $28 billion ± 2%
  • Sequential Growth: Expected in all market platforms.

Gross Margins:

  • GAAP: 74.8% ± 50 basis points
  • Non-GAAP: 75.5% ± 50 basis points
  • Full-Year Expectation: Mid-70s percent range.

Operating Expenses:

  • GAAP: Approximately $4 billion
  • Non-GAAP: Approximately $2.8 billion
  • Full-Year Growth: Expected to grow in the low 40% range.

Other Income/Expenses:

  • Expected to be an income of approximately $300 million, excluding gains and losses from nonaffiliated investments.

Tax Rates:

  • GAAP and Non-GAAP: 17%, ± 1%, excluding any discrete items.

Key Points:

  • Data Center Revenue: Strong demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell. Expecting significant growth as more customers build AI factories.
  • Gaming Revenue: Seasonal decline but healthy end demand and channel inventory.
  • ProViz Revenue: Down slightly sequentially but up significantly year-over-year, driven by generative AI and Omniverse industrial digitalization.
  • Automotive Revenue: Up sequentially and year-over-year, driven by AI Cockpit solutions and self-driving platforms.
  • Blackwell Production: Full production underway, with system and cloud partner integration for global availability later in the year.

Q2 2025 Earnings Call (August 28, 2024)

Total Revenue:

  • Expected: $32.5 billion ± 2%

Gross Margins:

  • GAAP: 74.4% ± 50 basis points
  • Non-GAAP: 75% ± 50 basis points
  • Full-Year Expectation: Mid-70% range.

Operating Expenses:

  • GAAP: Approximately $4.3 billion
  • Non-GAAP: Approximately $3.0 billion
  • Full-Year Growth: Expected to grow in the mid- to upper 40% range.

Other Income/Expenses:

  • Expected to be about $350 million, including gains and losses from nonaffiliated investments and publicly held equity securities.

Tax Rates:

  • GAAP and Non-GAAP: 17%, ± 1%, excluding any discrete items.

Key Points:

  • Data Center Revenue: Continued strong growth, driven by Hopper architecture and the initial ramp of Blackwell products.
  • Networking Revenue: Expected sequential growth as CSPs and supercomputing centers adopt NVIDIA InfiniBand.
  • Sovereign AI Opportunities: Expanding globally, with expectations to reach low double-digit billions in revenue this year.
  • Enterprise AI Adoption: Accelerating, with major IT companies joining NVIDIA to deploy AI platforms.
  • Gaming Revenue: Strong and growing, with healthy channel inventory and back-to-school sales.

Q3 2025 Earnings Call (November 20, 2024)

Total Revenue:

  • Expected: $37.5 billion ± 2%

Gross Margins:

  • GAAP: 73% ± 50 basis points
  • Non-GAAP: 73.5% ± 50 basis points
  • Blackwell Impact: Initially moderating gross margins to the low 70s, expected to reach mid-70s as production scales.

Operating Expenses:

  • GAAP: Approximately $4.8 billion
  • Non-GAAP: Approximately $3.4 billion

Other Income/Expenses:

  • Expected to be an income of approximately $400 million, excluding gains and losses from nonaffiliated investments.

Tax Rates:

  • GAAP and Non-GAAP: 16.5%, ± 1%, excluding any discrete items.

Key Points:

  • Data Center Revenue: Record-breaking, driven by strong demand for Hopper and Blackwell architectures.
  • Blackwell Ramp: On track to exceed previous revenue estimates, with several billion dollars in revenue expected in Q4.
  • Gaming Revenue: Expected decline due to supply constraints, but strong sell-through in Q3.
  • ProViz Revenue: Up year-over-year, driven by AI and graphic use cases.
  • Automotive Revenue: Record-high, driven by self-driving platforms and AI Cockpit solutions.
  • Sovereign AI Initiatives: Momentum gathering as countries embrace NVIDIA accelerated computing.

Summary of Key Themes Across Calls:

  1. Data Center Dominance:

    • Continued strong growth in Data Center revenue, driven by Hopper and Blackwell architectures.
    • Increasing adoption of AI factories, especially by CSPs and enterprise customers.
    • Significant demand for sovereign AI infrastructure.

  2. Blackwell Transition:

    • Blackwell is in full production, with system and cloud partner integration.
    • Anticipation for Blackwell to drive significant revenue growth, though initial margins may be lower.
    • Supply constraints for Blackwell expected to ease over time, with strong demand persisting.

  3. Gross Margin Evolution:

    • Gross margins initially impacted by the ramp of Blackwell but expected to improve to mid-70s as production scales.
    • Continued focus on optimizing yields and improving product mix.

  4. Enterprise and Sovereign AI:

    • Enterprise AI adoption accelerating, with major IT companies deploying NVIDIA AI platforms.
    • Sovereign AI initiatives expanding globally, with countries investing in national AI infrastructure.

  5. Networking and Spectrum-X:

    • Strong growth in networking revenue, particularly for InfiniBand and Spectrum-X solutions.
    • Spectrum-X expected to become a multibillion-dollar product line within a year.

  6. Gaming and ProViz:

    • Gaming revenue fluctuating due to supply constraints but with healthy demand and channel inventory.
    • ProViz revenue growing, driven by AI and graphic use cases, especially in automotive and manufacturing.

  7. Future Innovation:

    • Commitment to annual innovation cycles, with new chips, networking technologies, and software stacks.
    • Focus on driving down TCO and improving performance across all platforms.

NVIDIA's outlook reflects a strong commitment to scaling AI infrastructure and maintaining leadership in accelerated computing, with a focus on meeting the growing demand for AI capabilities across industries.

Last updated on 01/14/2025 05:14 AM

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